Is this leaked "Death Note" script real? Gwern Branwen considers ALL the factors.

It starts with a simple enough question: In 2009, a pdf file circulated the Internet purporting to be a leaked script of Hollywood’s adaptation of the popular anime Death Note. Is it real? Gwern Branwen, in an impressive showing of detective work, breaks down various pieces of evidence to figure out the answer, ranging from checking the location and timestamp metadata on the pdf file itself, to mathematically comparing the style of the script against the supposed author’s previous works, plus a whole load of Death Note fanfiction. Not only that, but they also use probability to assess the level of confidence when weighing different factors. Overall, it’s a remarkable analysis worthy of L himself (that’s a Death Note reference).